Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical moment, with one of the crypto market’s most closely followed models suggesting the coin must close this week above $114,000. If it falls short, the bullish momentum that many investors have been counting on could quickly lose ground. The warning comes from the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, who has cautioned that missing this level could lead to what he bluntly calls an “ugly” correction.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin needs to close the week above $114,000 to remain in line with the Stock-to-Flow model.
- The projection comes from PlanB, a well-known quantitative analyst in the crypto community.
- Failure to hit this price target could invalidate the model for the current cycle and spark a sharp decline.
- The Stock-to-Flow model bases Bitcoin’s value on scarcity, similar to how gold or silver are measured.
The forecast comes from PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst who created the Stock-to-Flow model. The model compares Bitcoin’s existing circulating supply, known as the “stock,” with the annual supply of new coins produced through mining, called the “flow.” A higher ratio suggests stronger scarcity, which according to the model should support a higher price.
In previous bull markets, the model has served as a reasonably reliable guide. It closely tracked Bitcoin’s performance after the 2012 and 2016 halving events, which are programmed reductions in the block reward for miners. Each halving limits the flow of new Bitcoin entering the market, increasing scarcity and historically fueling price rallies.
This time, however, the model faces one of its toughest challenges. For the current bull cycle to stay on track, PlanB has stated that Bitcoin must achieve a weekly close above $114,000 by the first week of September 2025. As of Saturday, August 30, 2025, Bitcoin’s price remains well below that threshold, leaving very little time for a dramatic upward move.
If Bitcoin fails to meet the target, PlanB has warned that the model could be invalidated for this cycle. Such a breakdown would likely shake investor confidence and could trigger heavy selling pressure, resulting in the kind of steep correction he describes.
At this point, traders and investors are watching the charts with intense focus. The upcoming weekly close will not only decide whether the model holds but could also set the tone for Bitcoin’s broader direction in the weeks to come.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q. What is the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model?
A. The Stock-to-Flow model is a way to measure the scarcity of an asset. It is calculated by dividing the total circulating supply of an asset (the stock) by the amount produced annually (the flow). The model suggests that assets with a higher S2F ratio, like gold and Bitcoin, are more valuable.
Q. Who is PlanB?
A. PlanB is the anonymous Dutch institutional investor and quantitative analyst who created and popularized the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model. He has a large following in the cryptocurrency community on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter).
Q. What happens if Bitcoin does not close above $114,000?
A. According to the model’s creator, failing to meet this price target would suggest the S2F model is no longer a reliable guide for this market cycle. This could harm investor sentiment and potentially lead to a major price correction as traders adjust their expectations.
